The short answer is, absolutely not. The truth is that all crime is down dramatically from its peak in the early 1990s. According to the Federal Bureau of Investigations, in 1991, the violent crime rate in the United States was 758.2 per 100,000 residents. As of 2020, that number has fallen 47% to 398.5 per 100,000. There has been a slight uptick in violent crime since 2014, but the uptick pales compared to the overall drop. Over the same period, property crimes also fell by a staggering 62%.
If we drill down into the data, we see that some locales have bucked this national trend. For example, New Mexico reached a violent crime peak in 1998, with 961.4 offenses per 100,00, followed by its low point in 2012, 559.6 per 100,000. Illinois, home to Chicago’s notorious “south side,” has followed the national trend in a nearly identical fashion. If you look at any social media post from a New Mexico news outlet, you will find the comments section flooded with comments from many who likely identify as Republicans, hanging the violent crime problems on “democrats.” It is a disingenuous claim at best. The fact is that between 2014 and 2019, New Mexico saw its largest increase in violent crime in more than a decade. The violent crime rate rose by 47% from 559.6 per 100,00 to 824 per 100,000. During that period, a Republican was living in the Governor’s Mansion in Santa Fe, New Mexico.
There are a number of factors that contribute to the peaks and valleys in violent crime rates. From my experience, political (mostly from the legislature and judiciary, rarely from the administrative branch) do play a role no doubt. However, the biggest contributing factors are likely socioeconomic in nature. Things like population density, median income levels, job availability, drug use within a population, homeless rates within a given area, and education levels.
There does appear to be some reverse correlation with some of these metrics. USA Today ranked all 50 states, plus the District of Columbia, based upon the state’s violent crime rates. Maine had the lowest violent crime rate at 112.1 per 100,000. Alaska came in at the bottom of the list with a violent crime rate of 885 per 100,000. Meanwhile, Forbes compiled a list of the best public education systems. Alaska ranked 48th, while Maine was closer to the top at 13. While those two datapoints show some correlation, they are far from conclusive but a likely component to crime levels.
In my opinion, one of the leading contributors to violent crime trends is a lack of morality, starting at home. Historically, politicians have blamed “violent video games” and “rap music” for such violence. Malarkey. I played all the video games growing up (and still do) and went through a phase in my youth where I listened to quite a bit of rap music (including NWA ironically). Fantasy is not reality, and the vast majority of children are able to make that distinction. In my experience, today’s youth often show no regard for the value of human life, and when you don’t value something it’s easily discarded. I could really get out into the weeds on this topic, but we have to do a better job at helping our young people develop in a more appropriate way, which includes experiencing adversity and failure.
At the end of the day, as a society, we need to do more in making sure our own homes are in order before we go pointing fingers and assigning blame in one place or another. While I too would love to find an easy solution to out perceived crime problem, it’s just not that simple.
Why the perception?
In my opinion, our skewed perception of violent crime (while valid in a few places) is based more on the availability of information than anything else. Think about it, when I was 7 years old, the United States was experiencing some of the worst crime rates in its history. I rode my bicycle all over town, went to the park, walked to friends houses at all hours and never once did I fall victim to any violence. Today, however, stories can be sent around the world almost instantaneously, and it is in our face constantly. The media today is designed in such a way to generate viewers, readers, and “clicks.” These three things drive revenue from advertiers and has become the crux of operations for every media company in the Country. It has become their focus, not a byproduct. Bottom line is “good news” doesn’t generate the same responses that “bad news” does, and good news isn’t good for the bottom line.
